Civitas Poll Shows Tillis Has Slight Edge over Hagan (for what it's worth)!

via Verne Strickland usadotcom 10/29/2014

Civitas Poll Shows Tillis Has Slight Edge over Hagan

The newest Civitas Poll showed state House Speaker Thom Tillis, a Republican, with a slight edge over Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in voters’ views of the U.S. Senate candidates.

When we asked 600 North Carolina registered voters who they’d vote for if the election were today, 40 percent picked Tillis, 39 percent Hagan and 5 percent Libertarian Sean Haugh. Fourteen percent were undecided. Asked about their choices without Haugh, Tillis again led Hagan by 1 point, 42 to 41, with 15 percent undecided.

“This is the first time since June that our polls showed Tillis in the lead,” Civitas President Francis De Luca said. “The Nov. 4 outcome will depend on whether the Democrats’ vaunted ground game can turn out their base, especially those who voted only in the 2012 presidential year but are less likely to say they are certain to vote this year.”

More data from the poll will be released at our next poll lunch on Thursday, Oct. 30, at the Raleigh Marriott Crabtree Valley. To sign up, click here.

The poll questioned 600 registered voters, of whom 25 percent were “cell phone only” users and were contacted via cell phone. The survey was taken Oct. 15-18, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.

Text of questions*:
If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today, for whom would you vote between … Thom Tillis, the Republican, Kay Hagan, the Democrat, or Sean Haugh, the Libertarian?
5/14       6/14       7/14       9/14       10/14
39%        36%        39%        40%        40%        Total Tillis, the Republican
36%        42%        41%        41%        39%        Total Hagan, the Democrat
8%           9%           7%           4%           5%           Total Haugh, the Libertarian
15%        12%        12%          14%         14%        Total Lean/ Undecided

31%        30%          29%           31%         33%        DEFINITELY TILLIS
8%           6%          10%          9%           7%           PROBABLY TILLIS
2%           1%           2%           1%           2%           LEAN TILLIS

27%        36%        35%        36%        34%        DEFINITELY HAGAN
9%           7%           6%           5%           5%           PROBABLY HAGAN
1%           1%           1%           5%           2%           LEAN HAGAN

4%           5%           5%           2%           3%           DEFINITELY HAUGH
5%           4%           2%           1%           2%           PROBABLY HAUGH
1%           1%           1%           1%           1%           LEAN HAUGH

10%        9%           7%           7%           9%           HARD UNDECIDED
1%           —               —               1%           —               OTHER (Specify)
1%           —               1%           1%           1%           REFUSED

And now suppose only two candidates were running for U.S. Senate. For whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican, or Kay Hagan, the Democrat?
5/14       6/14       7/14       9/14       10/14
46%        43%        45%        42%        42%        Total Tillis
41%        47%        43%        43%        41%        Total Hagan
12%        9%           10%        14%        15%        Total Lean/ Undecided

37%        36%        39%        35%        37%        Definitely Tillis
10%        8%           6%           7%           5%           Probably Tillis
1%           2%           2%           1%           2%           Lean Tillis
9%           5%           5%           6%           10%        Undecided
2%           1%           3%           7%           3%           Lean Hagan
10%        8%           7%           5%           4%           Probably Hagan
31%        39%        36%        38%        36%        Definitely Hagan
–               1%           2%           2%           2%           Refused
*Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Crosstabs here.
About the poll: This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted Oct. 15-18, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”
Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.