NC lawmakers like three sets of redistricting maps. Final passage may come Thursday.

Verne Strickland Blogmaster  July 26, 2011

By GARY D. ROBERTSON
Associated Press / July 25, 2011 / 9:39 PM


The General Assembly completed most of its work Monday on proposed district maps for its own seats and for North Carolina's congressional delegation, but Democrats predicted Republicans would have to redraw them later because they'll be labeled illegal in litigation.

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Republicans leading the once-a-decade redistricting process brushed aside the Democratic admonishments and substitute maps and approved the boundaries the GOP calls lawful following hours of debate. The Senate gave its approval to a map for the chamber's 50 seats and passed proposed boundaries for 13 congressional seats. The House also approved a plan for its 120 seats.

The largely party-line votes set the stage for final passage of the maps by Thursday, but they will still have to be signed off on by a federal court or U.S. Justice Department attorneys to ensure compliance with the Voting Rights Act before they can be used for the 2012 elections. Other litigation also is likely as Democrats continued to disagree with Republicans over how the GOP apportioned black voters in all three maps.

Democrats predicted the GOP-penned maps would never be implemented because they violated federal and state laws and court rulings. They said the boundaries weaken the political influence of black voters by lumping them in certain districts to isolate them and make surrounding districts more white and Republican. Sen. Dan Blue, D-Wake, who is black, said the GOP produced "ghettoized" districts.

"The judges will see the maps for what they are, and what they are is an attempt to disenfranchise African Americans by segregating them and diminishing their voting rights and the influence of women in North Carolina," said Rep. Deborah Ross, D-Wake, as the House debated proposed House districts. "Those two groups were not listened to in the process."

Republicans disagreed and spent most of Monday defending the maps. They cite legal rulings and the federal Voting Rights Act in arguing they're required to create majority-black districts - of which they drew more than 30 - where the population allows it and to protect the state from outside lawsuits.

The map "produced fair, legal and competitive districts that will allow any candidate to run in these districts with the opportunity to win," said Sen. Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, the Senate Redistricting Committee chairman as the congressional maps were debated.

Districts are redrawn every 10 years to reflect population growth reported by the U.S. Census. With Republicans holding a majority in both chambers for the first time in 140 years, GOP lawmakers are seeking to put their imprint on boundaries to extend their control of the General Assembly and boost their representation on Capitol Hill.

The congressional plan approved by the Senate would increase Republican voter registration in four districts currently held by Democrats and place two pairs of incumbents - Democrats Larry Kissell and Mike McIntyre as well as David Price and Brad Miller - in the same districts.

The plan was approved after the GOP majority in the chamber rejected several Democratic amendments. One would have reworked all 13 districts, while two others would have adjusted districts in the mountains and the Triangle region.

Elections data project that Republicans could win as many as 10 of the state's 13 U.S. House seats in the new plan. Democrats currently have a 7-6 advantage. The Democrats' alternative statewide map would have given Republicans an 8-5 advantage instead, based on how many districts in which John McCain would have defeated Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential race.

The Democratic map also would have kept all of Asheville and Buncombe County in the 11th Congressional District represented by Democrat Heath Shuler and all of Robeson County in the 7th District represented by McIntyre.

Democrats also offered alternative plans that would retain so-called "influence districts" in current boundaries that have at least a 40 percent black voting-age population. Democrats argue such districts comply with the Voting Rights Act by still effectively allowing black voters to elect candidates of their choice and preserving their overall political power.

The GOP plans "were drawn specifically to dump African American voters," charged Rep. William Wainwright, D-Craven, who is black.

Democrats said their alternative plans also were better than the Republican proposals because they crossed fewer county lines and the districts were generally more compact.

Republican mapmakers say Democrats failed to offer legal evidence that "packing" exists or timely fixes to perceived problems. Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, the House redistricting chairman, complained that Democrats offered substitute maps on the day of the floor debate after months of redistricting discussions.

The plan "is nothing more than a strategy that once again sandbags the people of North Carolina by letting something arrive on our desks right off the press," Lewis told colleagues.

Legislative maps would draw 20 pairs of lawmakers into the same district, forcing them to run against each other if they aimed to remain in the Legislature in 2013. Twenty-one are Republicans and 19 are Democrats.

Two Democrats - Reps. Dewey Hill of Columbus County and Bill Brisson of Bladen County - voted with Republicans in passing the House plan 68-50. GOP Rep. Glen Bradley of Franklin County, drawn into the same district with Nash County Republican Jeff Collins, voted against the map.

The congressional plan still must be approved by the House. The House and Senate also must take up the districts for each other's chamber, but historically each chamber has avoided changing the other's boundaries without permission. Redistricting plans don't go to Gov. Beverly Perdue's desk, becoming law immediately without her consideration.

http://www.goerie.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110725/APN/1107250581

McIntyre and Lumberton separated on map. Nothing to write home about.

Verne Strickland Blogmaster   July 20, 2011

Excessively incumbent Democrat wants to get Robeson and Fort Bragg back in his grasp.

StarNews File Photo

By Patrick Gannon
Patrick.Gannon@StarNewsOnline.com

Last Modified: Tuesday, July 19, 2011 at 6:43 p.m.

U.S. Rep. Mike Mcintyre said Tuesday that he plans to run for re-election in a newly redrawn 7th Congressional District even though the latet proposal puts his Lumberton home in an adjacent district.

Meanwhile, New Hanover and Pender counties would both be split between two congressional districts under the new map released Tuesday afternoon by the Republican-controlled General Assembly. The district boundaries are substantially different than the first draft released early this month, which didn't divide the counties.

Under the latest proposal, the new 7th Congressional District would include about three-fourths of New Hanover County voters, leaving out the downtown Wilmington area. It would also contain eastern Pender, all of Brunswick, Columbus, Bladen, Duplin, Johnston and Sampson counties, as well as parts of Cumberland, Hoke, Lenoir and Robeson counties.

But McIntyre's house in Robeson County isn't in the proposed 7th District. Instead, it is in the adjacent 8th District, along with fellow Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell. That means McIntyre would have to choose between facing Kissell in a Democratic primary or running in the new Republican-leaning 7th District, as members of Congress don't have to live in the area they represent.

In a statement Tuesday condemning the new map, the Mike McIntyre for Congress Campaign Committee said McIntyre planned to try to retain his seat in the 7th District. He also plans to try to get Robeson and Fort Bragg restored to the district.

U.S. Rep. Mike Mcintyre said Tuesday that he plans to run for re-election in a newly redrawn 7th Congressional District even though the latet proposal puts his Lumberton home in an adjacent district.

Meanwhile, New Hanover and Pender counties would both be split between two congressional districts under the new map released Tuesday afternoon by the Republican-controlled General Assembly. The district boundaries are substantially different than the first draft released early this month, which didn't divide the counties.

Under the latest proposal, the new 7th Congressional District would include about three-fourths of New Hanover County voters, leaving out the downtown Wilmington area. It would also contain eastern Pender, all of Brunswick, Columbus, Bladen, Duplin, Johnston and Sampson counties, as well as parts of Cumberland, Hoke, Lenoir and Robeson counties.But McIntyre's house in Robeson County isn't in the proposed 7th District. Instead, it is in the adjacent 8th District, along with fellow Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell.

That means McIntyre would have to choose between facing Kissell in a Democratic primary or running in the new Republican-leaning 7th District, as members of Congress don't have to live in the area they represent.

In a statement Tuesday condemning the new map, the Mike McIntyre for Congress Campaign Committee said McIntyre planned to try to retain his seat in the 7th District.

He also plans to try to get Robeson and Fort Bragg restored to the district."Congressman McIntyre has accomplished much for the 7th District and Southeastern North Carolina for the past 15 years, and he will work to continue to represent it in the next Congress and for the foreseeable future," the committee's statement said.

His committee condemned the revised map as "a blatant and brazen political attack on Southeastern North Carolina's communities and counties."

The committee noted the new map divides five southeastern counties: Robeson, Pender, New Hanover, Cumberland and Hoke. 

"They've taken Southeastern North Carolina and sliced it and diced it into five separate congressional districts with no regard for its communities of interest, its people and their needs," the committee said.

Leaning to GOP

Voters in the proposed 7th District chose Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama for president in 2008 by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent, an indication of the conservative tendencies of voters in the proposed district. About 52 percent of voters in McIntyre's current district voted for McCain.

"He's just really in a difficult position with the new maps if indeed this is what the new districts will look like," said Jonathan Kappler, research director for the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation and a close observer of state politics.

Republican Ilario Pantano, a former Marine who lives in New Hanover County and lost to McIntyre in last year's election, said he lives in and would plan to run for election from the new 7th District.

"Ilario made the decision to run for Congress earlier this year without knowing what the district lines might be, because he knew from listening to the people of Southeastern North Carolina that they were ready to have a congressman who would fight for their conservative principles," Pantano's campaign said in a prepared statement. 

The statement also said that the campaign believed it would be unfair to the people of the district to have a representative – obviously a reference to McIntyre – who doesn't live in the district.

The 3rd Congressional District, meanwhile, would include all or parts of 22 counties in eastern North Carolina, including the downtown Wilmington area and central and western Pender County. The incumbent in that district would be Rep. Walter Jones, a Republican from Farmville in Pitt County.

Boundaries for the state's 13 congressional districts are updated once a decade to account for population shifts identified by the U.S. Census. Typically a controversial and partisan process, this year is no different. Republicans in the state legislature control the process because they hold majorities in both the state House and Senate.

State committees will begin discussing the congressional district maps on Thursday morning in Raleigh. The full General Assembly still must approve them. The maps will first be used for the 2012 elections.

McIntyre and Kissell wouldn't be the only Democrats put into the same district by the new plan.

The residences of Reps. David Price and Brad Miller would be placed in the same Piedmont district, said state Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, the state House's chief mapmaker. 

While a North Carolina resident can run for any congressional seat in the state, it's tough to run outside your home district.

"Ilario made the decision to run for Congress earlier this year without knowing what the district lines might be, because he knew from listening to the people of Southeastern North Carolina that they were ready to have a congressman who would fight for their conservative principles," Pantano's campaign said in a prepared statement.

The statement also said that the campaign believed it would be unfair to the people of the district to have a representative – obviously a reference to McIntyre – who doesn't live in the district.

The 3rd Congressional District, meanwhile, would include all or parts of 22 counties in eastern North Carolina, including the downtown Wilmington area and central and western Pender County. The incumbent in that district would be Rep. Walter Jones, a Republican from Farmville in Pitt County.

Boundaries for the state's 13 congressional districts are updated once a decade to account for population shifts identified by the U.S. Census. Typically a controversial and partisan process, this year is no different. Republicans in the state legislature control the process because they hold majorities in both the state House and Senate.

State committees will begin discussing the congressional district maps on Thursday morning in Raleigh. The full General Assembly still must approve them. The maps will first be used for the 2012 elections.

McIntyre and Kissell wouldn't be the only Democrats put into the same district by the new plan.

The residences of Reps. David Price and Brad Miller would be placed in the same Piedmont district, said state Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, the state House's chief mapmaker.

While a North Carolina resident can run for any congressional seat in the state, it's tough to run outside your home district.

GOP legislators said they adjusted a July 1 map proposal to respond to concerns raised by 1st District Rep. G.K. Butterfield and others about his minority-dominated district and the U.S. Voting Rights Act when the initial proposal was released three weeks ago.

While Butterfield's boundaries were adjusted to include Durham County voters, remove Wake County votes and restore five eastern counties that face more scrutiny under anti-discrimination law, surrounding districts also had to be redrawn to ensure each district has exactly the same population. Lewis said that led to so-called "double-bunking" of incumbents.

"When you move one part of the map and ... you have to have the exact same number of people in every single district. Then you have to wind up making changes in almost every other district," Lewis told reporters.

The amended map was still expected to give North Carolina Republican candidates a better chance to win more congressional seats. Democrats have a 7-6 advantage among North Carolina's House delegation, and lost only one seat in the 2010 national GOP wave, when Republican Renee Ellmers upset Democratic incumbent Bob Etheridge.

This report contains material from The Associated Press.

Patrick Gannon: (919) 836-0889

On Twitter: @StarNewsPat

"Congressman McIntyre has accomplished much for the 7th District and Southeastern North Carolina for the past 15 years, and he will work to continue to represent it in the next Congress and for the foreseeable future," the committee's statement said.

His committee condemned the revised map as "a blatant and brazen political attack on Southeastern North Carolina's communities and counties."

The committee noted the new map divides five southeastern counties: Robeson, Pender, New Hanover, Cumberland and Hoke.

"They've taken Southeastern North Carolina and sliced it and diced it into five separate congressional districts with no regard for its communities of interest, its people and their needs," the committee said.

Leaning to GOP

Voters in the proposed 7th District chose Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama for president in 2008 by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent, an indication of the conservative tendencies of voters in the proposed district. About 52 percent of voters in McIntyre's current district voted for McCain.

"He's just really in a difficult position with the new maps if indeed this is what the new districts will look like," said Jonathan Kappler, research director for the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation and a close observer of state politics.

Republican Ilario Pantano, a former Marine who lives in New Hanover County and lost to McIntyre in last year's election, said he lives and would plan to run for election in the new 7th District.

"Ilario made the decision to run for Congress earlier this year without knowing what the district lines might be, because he knew from listening to the people of Southeastern North Carolina that they were ready to have a congressman who would fight for their conservative principles," Pantano's campaign said in a prepared statement.

The statement also said that the campaign believed it would be unfair to the people of the district to have a representative – obviously a reference to McIntyre – who doesn't live in the district.

The 3rd Congressional District, meanwhile, would include all or parts of 22 counties in eastern North Carolina, including the downtown Wilmington area and central and western Pender County. The incumbent in that district would be Rep. Walter Jones, a Republican from Farmville in Pitt County.

Boundaries for the state's 13 congressional districts are updated once a decade to account for population shifts identified by the U.S. Census. Typically a controversial and partisan process, this year is no different. Republicans in the state legislature control the process because they hold majorities in both the state House and Senate.

State committees will begin discussing the congressional district maps on Thursday morning in Raleigh. The full General Assembly still must approve them. The maps will first be used for the 2012 elections.

McIntyre and Kissell wouldn't be the only Democrats put into the same district by the new plan.

The residences of Reps. David Price and Brad Miller would be placed in the same Piedmont district, said state Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, the state House's chief mapmaker.

While a North Carolina resident can run for any congressional seat in the state, it's tough to run outside your home district.

GOP legislators said they adjusted a July 1 map proposal to respond to concerns raised by 1st District Rep. G.K. Butterfield and others about his minority-dominated district and the U.S. Voting Rights Act when the initial proposal was released three weeks ago.

While Butterfield's boundaries were adjusted to include Durham County voters, remove Wake County votes and restore five eastern counties that face more scrutiny under anti-discrimination law, surrounding districts also had to be redrawn to ensure each district has exactly the same population. Lewis said that led to so-called "double-bunking" of incumbents.

"When you move one part of the map and ... you have to have the exact same number of people in every single district. Then you have to wind up making changes in almost every other district," Lewis told reporters.

The amended map was still expected to give North Carolina Republican candidates a better chance to win more congressional seats. Democrats have a 7-6 advantage among North Carolina's House delegation, and lost only one seat in the 2010 national GOP wave, when Republican Renee Ellmers upset Democratic incumbent Bob Etheridge.

This report contains material from The Associated Press.

Patrick Gannon: (919) 836-0889

On Twitter: @StarNewsPat

Is the pen mightier than the sword? It is when NCGOP redraws district map!

Verne Strickland Blogmaster / July 15, 2011

 

 

BY JIM MORRILL - The Charlotte Observer

 

Republican mapmakers are already back at the drawing board, reconfiguring congressional districts in response to claims that their current plan dilutes the influence of African-American voters in Eastern North Carolina.

GOP Sen. Bob Rucho of Matthews, who chairs the Senate Redistricting committee, said lawmakers are responding to concerns by Democratic U.S. Rep. G.K. Butterfield, who represents the 1st District.
Any changes would have a ripple effect on other districts.

Butterfield, one of the state's two African-American congressmen, has criticized proposed changes to his district.

The GOP plan would make the 1st District a true majority-minority district by extending it into Raleigh with a net increase of 44,000 voting-age African-Americans. But in doing so, the plan would move 58,000 black voters currently in the 1st District into the 3rd District, represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Walter Jones.

Butterfield and other critics have suggested that would run afoul of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, designed to prevent the dilution of African-American votes.

"We are looking at the 1st District and trying to make adjustments," Rucho said Thursday. "What we're looking at is attempting to get it reasonably designed so we can get pre-clearance."

Under the Voting Rights Act, the U.S. Justice Department must approve or pre-clear any election-related changes. Republican lawmakers have said they may also ask a federal court to approve their plans.

Butterfield has said he's particularly concerned about the proposed removal of five eastern counties from his district. In testimony read at last week's public hearing, he said that would dilute the voting power of African-Americans in those counties, each of which is specially protected by the Voting Rights Act.

"The explanation is a political motive," he wrote, "to disenfranchise minority voters and to reduce their influence in adjoining districts."

Anita Earls, executive director of the Durham-based Southern Coalition for Social Justice and adviser to the state National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, said the Republican plan would mean "retrogression" for the affected black voters, a legal term that means reduced opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice.

"That's the retrogression question: Does it make protected voters worse off?" she said. "And it does."

Any changes to the 1st District would set off ripples that could reach Wake County and beyond.
Based on North Carolina's population, the ideal population for each of the 13 congressional districts is 733,499. Court rulings call for "zero deviation." That means all 13 districts have to be virtually equal.
Under the Republican plan, seven districts are right at the ideal. Five others have 733,498 people. One has 733,500.

"It has a huge impact on the rest of the map," Rucho said. "You press one side of the balloon and it ripples across. Whatever occurs, it's thanks to Congressman Butterfield."

Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College, said any changes would probably be felt most in the 3rd District and the Wilmington-based 7th District, represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre. But they could affect other districts in Wake County, which is divided among the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 13th districts under the GOP plan.

"It's going to have a ripple impact across the state," Bitzer said, "but it's going to have its biggest impact down east."

In a statement, Butterfield said he would welcome changes. "If the reports are true, I am comforted to know that the General Assembly recognizes that the minority vote is being diluted under the (Republican) plan and changes may be forthcoming," he said.

Rucho said any changes would be made by early next week. The redistricting committees are scheduled to meet Thursday. Lawmakers are expected to vote on the plans the following week.

Tags: politics | North Carolina | redistricting | congressional districts | House | Senate | GOP

Jim Morrill: 704-358-5059

New NC Redistricting maps show major boost in the works for GOP!

New N.C. Congressional map boosts GOP.

Posted: Friday, Jul. 01, 2011

A Republican-backed proposed congressional redistricting map for North Carolina (as of July 1, 2011).

Statement from Pantano for Congress on Proposed New Congressional Districts
July 1, 2011

Contact:
Andy Yates
(704) 467-0795
andy@pantanoforcongress.com

Wilmington, NC: For most the lines that define a congressional district are a bunch of insider politics that don’t put food on a table or pay a mortgage, but we have some good news about these new maps. They will finally give the citizens of southeastern North Carolina the conservative voice they deserve.  While still subject to change, these maps demonstrate a logical conclusion that the region is well served by concentrating its coastal strength from Morehead City to Calabash.  Matching communities with similar economic and conservative interests serves all of the citizens of South Eastern North Carolina that share the same bedrock principles and values that have made our country great and that Ilario will stand for in Congress.

 
We are confident that the citizens of the new 7^th District will respond very positively to Ilario’s conservative message of JOB CREATION by reducing taxes and cutting regulations  to spur private sector economic growth while at the same time putting an end to the runaway spending and crippling debt burden that threatens the prosperity of our families and future Generations. Ilario’s pro-growth message of government reform and private sector innovation will stand in sharp contrast to his opponent’s record of supporting the Obama stimulus, failing to support any budget or debt reduction plan, and his continued support for wasteful spending of money we don’t have paid for by debt from governments we don’t trust.

This weekend Congressman McIntyre is returning from a taxpayer paid luxury junket across Europe from Rome to Moscow to Lisbon where the official itinerary noted he and his wife were celebrating their wedding anniversary with all the perks of a Washington insider.  Meanwhile, back here in southeastern North Carolina, where unemployment is in the double digits, Pantano will be spending time in 7 counties celebrating America's Independence with supporters and friends from all across the new district. A 4th of July stop will include Onslow County where Ilario served proudly as a Marine in two of our nation’s wars, the first Gulf War (1991) and Iraq in (2004).

Pantano, whose father legally immigrated to the United States from Italy and became a US citizen in 1976, is willing to give the congressman an Italian Lesson for free when he returns from spending our money overseas. Pantano will also be happy to share with the Congressman what he heard from his fellow citizens of Southeastern North Carolina about their concerns over unemployment, the debt, and out of control federal spending which has ballooned over his opponents fourteen years in Washington living highon the hog.

###

 

• Want to speak out on the plan?
  
• On the Web: View the maps, details
  
• Want to speak out on the plan?
  N.C. lawmakers will hold a statewide public hearing on the proposed congressional districts on Thursday from 3 p.m. to 9.
  The hearing will be held through a video conference at sites from Collowhee to Wilmington. Speakers are limited to five minutes. For information on the hearing, call Erika Churchill or Kelly Quick at 919-733-2578.
  Locations include:
  The N.C. Museum of History, 1st floor auditorium, 5 East Edenton St., Raleigh.
  Fayetteville Technical Community College, Cumberland Hall Room 3082201 Hull Road, Fayetteville.
  UNC Charlotte, J. Murrey Atkins Library, Room 143, 9201 University City Blvd. Charlotte.
  Appalachian State University, Anne Belk Hall, Interactive Video Services Classroom 023, 224 Joyce Lawrence Lane, Boone.
  
  
  

  By Jim Morrill
  jmorrill@charlotteobserver.com

North Carolina's new Republican-drawn congressional districts would give the GOP at least two and possibly four more seats, according to one analyst.

The map, released this afternoon, redraws the state's 13 congressional districts.

It maintains the state's two majority-minority districts and extends the 1st District, represented by Democrat G.K. Butterfield, into Wake County.

Democrat David Price's 4th District would snake all the way into Cumberland County.

It adds Republican voters to districts currently represented by Democratic Reps. Larry Kissell of Montgomery County, Heath Shuler of Haywood County, Brad Miller of Wake County and Mike McIntyre of Robeson County.

"Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre Fighting Chance," analyst John Davis headlined a news release on the proposed districts.

North Carolina currently has seven Democrats and six Republicans in its delegation. Republicans gained one seat last fall -- Renee Ellmers in the 2nd District -- to help the GOP take back control of the U.S. House.
Today's map is the first of three lawmakers will present. Proposed new legislative districts will be released July 11.

Republican Sen. Bob Rucho of Matthews, the Senate redistricting chair, downplayed the partisan advantage the map might give his party.

"What I think more than anything is they'll be districts that are competitive," he said. "Fair and legal districts that are competitive."

NC redistricting: Democrat Brad Miller will pay the piper as GOP draws the map.

VERNE STRICKLAND BLOGMASTER

By Joshua Miller ROLL CALL  June 22, 2011

 

 Brad Miller: How far can you fall?

TO THE VICTOR GO THE SPOILS. IT'S BEEN A LONG TIME COMING!

Rep. Brad Miller has no friends left in the North Carolina Legislature, where he drew his own district 10 years ago from a perch on the state Senate redistricting panel. Now, Republicans are making him their No. 1 target and looking for ways to dismantle his district.

Political payback comes in many forms.

It could be particularly biting this cycle for Rep. Brad Miller, who drew himself a Congressional district as a state legislator a decade ago.

Now, the North Carolina Democrat is on the receiving end of the redistricting process, with the GOP-controlled state Legislature due to deliver retribution in the form of dismantling his district and making him its No. 1 target for defeat.

“Congressman Miller, people tend to believe, will be targeted. And it’s purely personal. He chaired the redistricting committee in the [state] Senate 10 years ago, and this is payback, if you will,” state Democratic Party Executive Director Jay Parmley said.

Paul Shumaker, a longtime GOP strategist in the state, said Miller was “absolutely” the most vulnerable among the House Democrats being targeted — namely Reps. Mike McIntyre, Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler.
Miller “doesn’t have any friends left in the Legislature,” Shumaker said.

State Republicans are now haggling behind closed doors over the first draft lines of the new Congressional map, to be released around July 1. The state’s Democratic governor does not have the legal authority to veto new lines.

Republicans see the Tar Heel State as a gold mine for gaining seats in the 2012 cycle.

“It’s a place where the lines 10 years ago were gerrymandered in such a way that unlocking the gerrymander that’s there will give us [the] opportunity to pick up more seats there than any other state in the country,” said a Republican with substantial knowledge of the state’s redistricting process. The GOP sees the opportunity to have eight Republican districts, four Democratic districts and one tossup district in the state.

But Democrats think that is a bridge too far.

“There are laws of unintended consequences that come out of these things all the time. And the greedier these guys get, the more difficult it is going to be to hold these districts. They can make them competitive, but they can’t make ’em solid,” longtime North Carolina Democratic consultant Thomas Mills said.

Democrats admit that the state will be an uphill battle for them, but they note the demographic trends — increases in Latino and black voting age population that outpaced increases in white voting age population — and the higher voter turnout generated by having the president on the ballot will be to their advantage.

North Carolina will be a key battleground in the presidential election, a cause for optimism for Democrats.

The four safe Democratic districts are expected to be: the two majority-minority districts currently represented by Reps. Mel Watt and G.K. Butterfield; a third majority non-white district; and a white, affluent district anchored by the Raleigh-Durham area.

But as the details of a new Congressional map get hammered out in legislative committees, Republicans say final decisions on the new lines have not yet been made.

“Everything is still being finalized and everything is still being checked. Until that happens, we won’t know exactly what the maps will look like,” said a North Carolina Republican with knowledge of the redistricting.

Republicans see a number of ways to get rid of Miller’s district, including dismantling the 13th district entirely and placing it in a different part of the state.

Republicans also say Miller might be drawn into fellow Democratic Rep. David Price’s Chapel Hill-Durham-based 4th district, which sets up the potential of a Member-versus-Member primary. Miller’s office declined to comment, but it did say he was running for re-election.

One potential GOP challenger for Miller is Nathan Tabor, a tea-party-aligned businessman and chairman of the Forsyth County Republican Party.

Republicans say Kissell might well be the easiest target in redistricting because of the 8th district’s geography. By cutting Fayetteville out of the district’s eastern side and parts of the Charlotte region on its western side, the seat becomes more Republican. One potential GOP opponent for Kissell, depending on how the final lines are drawn, is businessman Pat Molamphy.

Geography might end up helping McIntyre. Bordered on one side by the Atlantic Ocean and on another by South Carolina, the 7th district will be more difficult for the GOP in North Carolina to tinker with than those of his other vulnerable colleagues.

Still, Republicans see a path to swinging his district, which has been represented by a Democrat since the 1800s, into their column. Regardless of the new lines, GOP insiders tell Roll Call that ex-Marine Ilario Pantano, who lost to McIntyre in 2010, is likely to take another run at the Congressman.

Republicans also see the prospect of McIntyre and Kissell being drawn into the same district.

Republicans say they need to shore up freshman Rep. Renee Ellmers’ (R) 2nd district but that other GOP incumbents are safe.

Democrats hope they will still be able to target the 2nd, which was held by Democrat Bob Etheridge for 14 years. And they note that the more Republicans who are moved into the 2nd, the harder it will be to dilute Democrats in the districts of McIntyre, Kissell and Miller.

The GOP also hopes to weaken Shuler’s 11th district in the western part of the state by adding population from the neighboring 10th district, which is very Republican. If the new lines were to place Democratic Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, outside the 11th, Shuler could face an even steeper challenge than he did in 2010.

But no matter the district lines, to beat him, Republicans will need a good candidate. Republicans in the Tar Heel State and in Washington, D.C., were bullish on their recruitment prospects this cycle, citing the substantial opportunity to add seats in North Carolina.

“There is a perception in North Carolina that this is a time to run for Congress if you’re a Republican living in one of those four Democratic districts,” said the Republican with substantial knowledge of the state’s redistricting process.

But regardless of what happens, there will almost certainly be a lawsuit over Congressional redistricting.

Parmley, the executive director of the state Democratic Party, did not seem optimistic that the courts could be avoided. “You always hold out a hope that they draw fair maps, but there’s no indication we’ve been given that makes us think that they will be fair for us. So I think it’s reasonable to expect in the long run, that this will not be settled by the Legislature,” he said.

Under the 1965 Voting Rights Act, either the Department of Justice or a federal court must also approve the final lines.

JoshuaMiller@rollcall.com | @jm_dc

Labels: 2012 Redistricting NC, Brad Miller Vulnerable, GOP

NEWS BULLETIN: THE LATEST ON REDISTRICING PROGRESS AND SCHEDULE!

ANDY YATES, CAMPAIGN OFFICIAL FOR PANTANOFOR CONGRESS, SENT THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION TO USA DOT COM ON THURS. MORNING JUNE 16:

Verne:

I went to the redistricting committee meeting yesterday (June 15) and they laid out the schedule for releasing maps through adoption.  Either this Friday (June 17th) or Monday (June 20th) they are going to release the maps for the Voting Rights (majority-minority) districts then they are going to have a public hearing on those maps only on Thursday, June 23rd.

 On Friday July 1st, they are going to release all the rest of the district maps then that next week they will hold a public hearing on those.  July 13th, 14th and 15th the redistricting committee will convene in Raleigh to debate the maps and discuss the input from the public hearings. Then on Sunday night July 17th the General Assembly will reconvene in Raleigh to debate and vote on the maps.

The plan is for the General Assembly to be in session through Thursday July 21st as needed to approve the maps.  If maps aren't approved by the 21st then additional times will be scheduled for the General Assembly to debate and vote on maps.

 ANDY


<andy@pantanoforcongress.com>

 We'll have more information on this vital topic as soon as it becomes available. Stay tuned. Verne.

McIntyre concerned about jobs (mostly his own). Congressman has plan to subvert NC redistricting to his own ends. Here's the scoop!

By Verne Strickland

Hello. It’s Verne. Your trusty old blogger bud. The conservative pundit who rats on pompous, big-spending, excessively incumbent, closet liberal Democrats -- plus commies, atheists, pacifists, radical Muslims, and Mormons with more than six wives? Know who I am now?

Well okay, then. I have a question for you. Have you talked with your congressman recently? Mr. McIntrye? From Lumberton? The guy who staged the little jobs summit recently? Where his aide dissed Mr. Del PIetro behind his back, telling a TV reporter Pietro was crazy, not all there, off his rocker, schizophrenic? Remember that?

Well, I think it’s time you did talk with your congressman. Because he’s acting mighty weird these days. You’re probably used to this. But this time it’s really bizarre. Maybe it’s Mr. McIntyre who’s off his rocker.

Truth is, Mike just don’t do right. He’s so bound up with hanging onto his own job that he’s ignoring the plight of the unfortunate jobless people in his own district. That’s selfish, disappointing, arrogant, and deplorable. 

The bottom line of my tirade here is to inform you that Mike has figured out a way to game the system on redistricting. His aim is to subvert the outcome and influence it in his favor.You can stop him in his tracks.

Mike has revamped his own website to program his robots so they will come together in a mass, or a pile, or possibly a wad, and do his bidding on this issue. They probably will. 

So let’s get our own true soldiers together and resist this audacious campaign by Congressman Mike McIntyre, who has faithfully worked to improve the lot of “his” people -- but after fourteen years in his cushy Barcalounger in Washington still lives in one of the poorest, sickest, most impoverished and demoralized counties in all of North Carolina! That would be Robeson County. So let’s cut to the chase.

McIntyre is using scare tactics to trick voters on redistricting and preserve the gerrymandered "good old boy" network.

We saw it with the bogus social security scare ads, and then the bogus fair tax scare ads.  Now we're even seeing it with redistricting.  How far will the Democrats go to keep their grip on power? Too far, you can bet.

As a government shutdown looms, trillions in deficits accumulate and unemployment and foreclosure continue to ravage Southeastern North Carolina, do you know whose job Congressman McIntyre is trying to save? HIS.

Are you as stunned as I am to learn that while our nation is struggling to undo the liberal's job-killing policies, Congressman McIntyre is busy trying to LOBBY the newly-elected leadership in Raleigh to keep his job?

Of all the Democrat and Republican congressman in North Carolina, Mike Mcintyre is the ONLY ONE who has re-dedicated part of his website to redistricting and launch a lobbying campaign to keep his job.

Call his office and ask him how he could possibly spend the time and energy on saving his job -- time that he should be spending on the people of North Carolina. 

Call Congressman McIntyre at (202) 225-2731 and ask, “Whose job are you really trying to protect, Mister Mike -- yours or the hapless people of your neglected district?"

Call the Congressman and tell him to get back to work and leave the district issues to the newly-elected legislators that the people of Southeastern North Carolina have empowered. Tell him that they should do their job just as you expect the congressman to do his. Will you please do dat?

You've seen it all, from voting machines that only make "mistakes" that favor the Democrats to Nancy Pelosi pumping in $570,000 dollars to bail out McIntyre at the last minute in the recent election.

Now they are at it again, right under your nose. How much do these liberal scalawags think will fit under your nose anyway? They are trying to intimidate our new Republican legislators. They are using fear to keep their hold on power. The only question is, are you going to let them win? We need a congressman in Washington fighting for OUR families, not HIS job security!

McIntyre has been paid over $2 million dollars of tax payer money in salary over the last 15 years. and that doesn't include the nearly $20 million for his staff. Whose interests is he actually looking out for?

I’m not through with this yet. This is so important, so cheeky, so downright onerous, that I am going to do a series on the issue, which maybe we’ll call “Mike and you. Who comes first? Well can you guess?” Not very catchy, but it'll have to do. I gotta rush this to press.

There will be a series of meetings coming up in April and May at convenient locations throughout Brunswick, Cumberland, New Hanover, Pender and Robeson Counties.

We will post the locations in our next report. Be sure to mark the date, time and place on your calendar. Or write it with your wife's lipstick on the bathroom mirror. This is big. Resolve to be there to resist McIntyre’s cheesy effort to get control of the redistricting process.

We’ll also explain how to register to voice your opinions, and how to assure that you are in compliance with the Public Hearing Guidelines.

Also call McIntyre’s office and let him know you don’t like him meddling with a fair and open redistricting plan. You didn't forget the number did you? It's  (202) 225-2731.

And visit the official Mike McIntyre web site to see what he’s doing. I don’t think you’ll be surprised. But I’ll wager you’ll be very disappointed.

Go there now -- http://www.mikeworksforme.com/redistricting-2/

Keep the faith, neighbors. I am your humble servant. Verne.

2012 Redistricting in NC: Who gets hit, who gets bit, and who's left standing when the music stops.

Verne Strickland Blogmaster

March 03, 2011

Aaron Blake, one of the savvy political commentators for The Fix, published  in The Washington Post, is a savvy political commentator in my book. At least he would be, if I had a book.

Barring that, he did a tantalizing overview of how the complex dynamics of redistricting might play out in North Carolina. The Fix has previously examined how the fickle pen of political mappers might chart the future of twelve other states.

These are choice parts of Blake's analysis of probable scenarios in North Carolina – who gets hit, who gets bit, and who’s left standing when the music stops.

*********** 

North Carolina was one of just a few states where Republicans missed their chance at big gains in the 2010 midterms. Which makes it one of the only states in the country where Republicans could well make big gains in redistricting.

The Tarheel State stands out as the one state where Republicans will be expecting to gain multiple seats in the election following redistricting, and they could gain three or four if things pan out close to perfectly.

Republicans in November secured control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since the 1800s, and even though the state has a Democratic governor -- Bev Perdue -- she has no veto power over whatever map the Republicans draw.

The U.S. Census Bureau released detailed population data for the state Wednesday, but we've already got a good idea about what the GOP will try to do and what big gains are possible.

The reason for all that opportunity is two-fold.

One is that the current map was drawn by Democrats in 2001, which means many of the marginal districts were drawn to their liking. "Ten years ago, Democrats drew the most perfect map in the history of gerrymandering," remarked one Republican familiar with the state's lines.

Two is that Democrats stood tough in the state in 2010. While Democrats in swing and conservative-leaning districts across the country went down to defeat, North Carolina Democratic Reps. Heath Shuler, Mike McIntyre and Larry Kissell all won -- though Republicans did unseat Rep. Bob Etheridge.

The result is a map on which Democrats maintain a majority -- seven to six -- of congressional seats in the state. Of the 17 states where Republicans control redistricting, North Carolina is the only state where that is the case.

Because of those two factors -- the Democratic-drawn map and the continued Democratic majority -- there is plenty of room for improvement for the GOP. And the most likely Democrats to bear the brunt are McIntyre, Kissell and Rep. Brad Miller.

Miller is probably the most endangered. His north-central 13th district went 60 percent for President Obama in 2008, but a line tweak here or there, and all of a sudden it's a Republican-leaning district.

The district currently reaches awkwardly into Greensboro and Raleigh -- the two areas that allowed Miller to win reelection last year. Those areas could easily be handed off to nearby Democratic Reps. G.K. Butterfield in the 1st district, David Price in the 4th, and Mel Watt in the 12th, while Miller could pick up some GOP-leaning territory from Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx in the 5th district and GOP Rep. Howard Coble in the 6th -- both who are very safe. Miller could also add some of the GOP-leaning Raleigh suburbs from Rep. Renee Ellmers's (R) 2nd district, though Republicans will want to help Ellmers too.

Ellmers is the second easy call for the GOP. After beating Etheridge in November, her marginal 2nd district in the center of the state will need to be shored up. The most likely solution would be to, like with Miller's district, give some black and Democratic areas of Raleigh to Butterfield to the north, while picking up more of the Republican-leaning Fayetteville/Fort Bragg area to the south.

These two scenarios work because Butterfield's district will need to expand and pick up black voters. It is currently in danger of losing its majority-black status, and the Voting Rights Act requires that a majority-minority district be drawn where possible.

Butterfield's massive and awkward northeastern 1st district is one of two majority-black districts in the state, along with Watt's serpentine 12th district that runs from Greensboro to Charlotte. Those two districts and Price's Research Triangle-based seat are the only three safe Democratic districts in the state.

With those three safe and Miller likely in a heap of trouble, that leaves Shuler, McIntyre and Kissell as potential targets. And that's where things get a little uncertain.

Republicans have a number of options when it comes to targeting McIntyre and Kissell; with Shuler, it will be more difficult.

Shuler's 11th district is nestled in the western corner of the state, landlocked by Rep. Patrick McHenry's (R-N.C.) 10th district, and the only way to make it more Republican is to trade territory with McHenry. But Shuler's district is already pretty conservative -- going easily for the last two GOP presidential candidates -- so it's not clear that shifting even more GOP-aligned voters into it would make much of a difference.

If Republicans are going to beat Shuler, it will have to be in a district pretty close to what he has now. But moving some of Asheville into McHenry's district could only help, and McHenry, who has his eyes on moving up the leadership ladder, may be willing to play ball.

McIntyre and Kissell, meanwhile, border each other in the southern part of the state -- Kissell in the 8th district east of Charlotte and McIntyre in the Wilmington and Fayetteville-area 7th district along the southern tip of the state.

McIntyre's district went for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by five points in the 2008 presidential race, while Kissell's went for Obama by five.

Republicans could either try to make both incumbents more vulnerable or focus on completely dismantling one and allowing the other Democrat to survive.

Considering that, there are basically four scenarios here.

The first would be the creation of a third majority-black district. Provided that the Census data will support it, this district would take in the black and more Democratic parts of McIntyre's and Kissell's districts, making both incumbents pretty beatable. But it would also force big changes elsewhere on the map, because another district would have to be eliminated. (For example, do Republicans then try to dismantle Price's district in order to keep the state at three safe Democratic seats? It might not be easy.)

Under the second scenario, Republicans could weaken both McIntyre and Kissell without creating a new majority-black district. They could give McIntrye some territory from Rep. Walter Jones's safe Republican 3rd district to the east, while Kissell could pick up GOP-friendly territory from Coble's 6th to the north and Rep. Sue Myrick's (R-N.C.) 9th district to the west.

In that case, though, neither district would be a whole lot more winnable. And given that both men have proven solid campaigners -- McIntyre especially -- victory wouldn't be assured.

The better option may be to focus on one or the other.

A third option is for Republicans to pack McIntyre's district with Democrats from Kissell's district and Ellmers's 2nd district, allowing McIntyre to survive but giving the GOP a great shot at winning Kissell's seat and holding Ellmers's.

A more devious, fourth option would be to move McIntyre's home county of Robeson, along the western border of his district, into Kissell's district. That would effectively make Kissell's 8th district more Democratic, but it would also leave McIntyre with a tough decision -- run in a tough district where he doesn't live, or challenge Kissell in a primary. Republicans would have a good shot at winning McIntyre's current district either way.

Barring the unforeseen, Republicans should have a real good chance to take Miller's district and one of either Kissell's or McIntyre's. That would give them an eight-to-five advantage in the state's delegation.

A more ambitious map could land Republicans as many as three or even four seats and a nine-to-four or 10-to-three edge. But a lot of pieces will need to fall into place.

"Republicans would be disappointed in North Carolina if they didn't pick up two seats," said Dallas Woodhouse, the state director for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. "Three would probably be the maximum."

Either way, North Carolina would likely constitute the GOP's biggest gains in 2012. And much of the GOP's redistricting energy will be spent in this state.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/north-carolina-the-gops-golden.html