Brad Miller targeted by NRCC robo calls in NC 13th District. 'Addicted to Big Government spending.'

Verne Strickland Blogmaster

 

 Submitted by robchristensen on 2011-08-09 09:27

Tags: Under the Dome | Brad Miller | National Republican Congressional Committee

 

 

Democratic Congressman Brad Miller is the target of a new round of robo calls today, criticizing him for opposing a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced federal budget.

The recorded telephone messages going into Miller's 13th district are being paid for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has winning the seat a high priority in next year's election.

The Republican legislature last month re-aligned the district to make it much more GOP-leaning, attracting a growing Republican field of candidates. The legislature moved  Miller's home into the 4th district, and he may consider running in the 4th district, if the new district maps survive a court challenge.

The announcer in the robo calls says in part: “Brad Miller continued to oppose a Balanced Budget Amendment that would force Washington to live within its means. Brad Miller and his fellow Democrats' addiction to big government spending has led to a downgrade of America's credit rating and a dramatic loss in the global markets that could force you to pay more for everyday expenses,”

“While Brad Miller keeps standing in the way of real fiscal reform, middle-class families in North Carolina could now see a loss in retirement savings while mortgage rates, car payments and student loans could become even more expensive.”

Democrats -- and GOP candidate Ilario Pantano -- criticize NC redistricting plans.

Verne Strickland Blogmaster

Published: 07:58 AM, Thu Jul 21, 2011

By Paul Woolverton

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Staff writer FayObserver

The newest proposed revisions for North Carolina's congressional districts are drawing criticism from the Democrats and from a Republican congressional candidate.

"Whole counties, cities and towns are shredded by this approach," said N.C. Democratic Party Chairman David Parker in a statement.

The new maps wrongly divide up communities of interest in the Wilmington area, said a spokesman for 7th District Congressional candidate Ilario Pantano, who last year lost a close election against incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre of Lumberton.

The maps are being redrawn to account for shifts and growth in North Carolina's population. The mapmaking also gives the political party in power - this time the Republicans - a chance to devise districts that favor its candidates.

The latest revision to the 7th District draws McIntyre's home out of the district. He and most of his Robeson County base would be put into the 8th. The new map also removes Fayetteville, Fort Bragg and most of the rest of Cumberland County from the 7th. It would keep the rural southeast corner.

The map adds Republican-friendly Johnston County, parts of which have become suburbs of Raleigh.
Raleigh suburbs have little to do with coastal southeast North Carolina, and vice versa, said Pantano spokesman Andy Yates.

A better-drawn map likely would put more Democrats into the 7th District, Pantano said in a statement, making it harder for a Republican to win, but "I know that truly selfless service means doing the right thing, even when it hurts you politically."

The new 7th District has also drawn a primary opponent for Pantano. Republican State Sen. David Rouzer of Benson announced on Wednesday that he will run for the 7th District seat. In his announcement, he said he has received numerous endorsements from prominent Republicans.

Even though McIntyre would no longer live in the 7th District, he still plans to run for re-election. Congressmen are not required to live in their districts. But he still thinks the maps are bad.

"They've taken southeastern North Carolina and sliced it and diced it into five separate congressional districts with no regard for its communities of interest, its people, and their needs," McIntyre's campaign committee said in a statement.

Democrats stand to lose the most under the Republican-drawn maps. Based on previous voting patterns, the new maps favor Republican candidates more than a previous proposal, said Jonathan Kappler of the N.C. FreeEnterprise Foundation, a political research organization in Raleigh.

Out of the 13 North Carolina congressional districts, Republicans would be favored to win 10 seats, he said, and Democrats three. The existing districts are held by seven Democrats and six Republicans.

Under the latest maps, Cumberland County would be split among the 7th, 2nd and 4th Districts. Under the old maps, it is split between the 7th, 2nd and 8th.

Democrat Larry Kissell of Montgomery County, serving the 8th, will have a hard time winning the new 8th even though it picks up Democrat-friendly Robeson County, Kappler said. The rest of the district favors Republican candidates, he said. Despite the challenges, Kissell this month announced his re-election campaign.

Two Republicans are already looking at challenging him. According to WRAL, state Rep. Justin Burr of Stanly County and state Rep. Jerry Dockham of Davidson County said they are seriously considering runs for the 8th District.

Ten years ago, when the Democrats controlled the legislature and the mapmaking, they tried to make the 8th District a Democrat-friendly territory to defeat Republican Robin Hayes. Kissell defeated Hayes in 2008.

The 2nd District, served by freshman Republican Renee Ellmers of Harnett County, changes significantly, shifting to new territory to the west to Randolph County, home of the North Carolina Zoo.

It takes up much of Cumberland County and Fayetteville, plus all of Republican-friendly Moore County.
Overall, it's more solidly Republican, Kappler said.

"She's the Republican that's most helped by the congressional redistricting, which is important for her because she won in a great Republican year," Kappler said.

Fayetteville would also be added to a new 4th District that includes parts of Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill. Fayetteville native Brad Miller, a Democrat currently serving the 13th District, lives in Raleigh in the new 4th District. The 4th is served by Democrat David Price of Chapel Hill.

Staff writer Paul Woolverton can be reached at woolvertonp@fayobserver.com or (910) 486-3512.

New NC Redistricting maps promise to add GOP seats in U.S. Congress. Squabbles erupt.

Verne Strickland Blogmaster June 3, 2011

WILLIAM 'BUS' BARBER OF NC NAACP CRIES 'FOUL'. STATE DEMOCRAT LEADER SAYS GOP 'OVERREACHED'.

by BETH SHAYNE / NewsChannel 36

Bio | Email | Follow: @bethshayne

WCNC.com

Posted on July 2, 2011 at 9:08 AM

Updated yesterday at 11:59 AM 

As many as four Democratic members of Congress from North Carolina could find it much harder to win re-election under redistricted boundaries proposed Friday by Republican state lawmakers.

The draft of a redistricted map would increase the percentages of GOP voters in the 8th district, represented by Larry Kissell, the 13th District of U.S. Rep. Brad Miller, the 11th Congressional District represented by U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, and U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre's 7th district.

Of North Carolina's 13 representatives, 7 are Democrats. Six are Republicans. The GOP gained only one seat in the wave of Republican wins in 2010. With that in mind, Republicans in charge of the effort presented it as an effort to make North Carolina more competitive.

"While we have not been ignorant of the partisan impacts of the districts we have created, we have focused on ensuring that the districts will be more competitive than the districts created by the 2001 Legislature," said a statement from Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, and state Sen. Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, chairmen of the Legislature's redistricting committees.

Kissell, whose district will take in portions of GOP-friendly Randolph, Rowan and Davidson county, called it gerrymandering.

"Mine is not a Democratic or Republican agenda, it is the American agenda, an agenda that people of every political stripe can and do support. I plan to seek re-election, return to Congress and continue the fight on behalf of my constituents.

Should this proposed map pass muster with the courts and become the final map, I will welcome Rowan, Davidson, Randolph and Robeson counties into the 8th District and fight for them as I have fought for the current 8th District," Rep. Kissell said in a statement.

Jay Parmley, executive director of the North Carolina Democratic Party, said Republicans overreached by creating a map that tries to favor their candidates in a state that's been politically competitive for the past decade. Republicans had a majority of the state's delegation just five years ago. "I would call it Republican greed," he said.

From his Matthews home Friday, Rucho told NewsChannel 36 the map is both fair and legal.

The process of redistricting is triggered each year by new population estimates totalled by the 10-year federal census. However, the process is generally considered political, as it is controlled by the party in power in each state. In 2001, during the last redistricting, North Carolina's legislature was held by Democrats.

Public hearings on the maps will be held next week, and new maps with districts for NC House and Senate elections will be released July 11. The Republicans want to approve congressional and legislative districts by the end of July. They have to be approved by the U.S. Justice Department or a federal court to comply with the 1965 Voting Rights Act, to ensure that they are free of discrimination against minorities.

The NC NAACP has already charged that they do not pass the discrimination test. In a statement Friday night, NAACP president Rev. William Barber called the map "a frontal attack on civil and voting rights," writing, ""Another major concern is that five counties covered by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act are being removed from the 1st Congressional District. In the heavily African-American area of Eastern North Carolina, this district was developed intentionally to overcome years of disenfranchisement and voter exclusion."

The maps were changed to reflect an additional 1.5 million residents in North Carolina since the 2000 Census. But the increase wasn't enough for the state to gain another U.S. House seat, as it did in the two previous redistricting cycles. The maps must be redrawn so a near-equal number are in each district -- 733,499.

The Associated Press contributed.
Online Proposed North Carolina congressional district map:http://bit.ly/kHdm3k
http://www.topix.com/us-house/mike-mcintyre/2011/07/new-nc-maps-would-likely-add-gop-seats-in-congress

NC redistricting: Democrat Brad Miller will pay the piper as GOP draws the map.

VERNE STRICKLAND BLOGMASTER

By Joshua Miller ROLL CALL  June 22, 2011

 

 Brad Miller: How far can you fall?

TO THE VICTOR GO THE SPOILS. IT'S BEEN A LONG TIME COMING!

Rep. Brad Miller has no friends left in the North Carolina Legislature, where he drew his own district 10 years ago from a perch on the state Senate redistricting panel. Now, Republicans are making him their No. 1 target and looking for ways to dismantle his district.

Political payback comes in many forms.

It could be particularly biting this cycle for Rep. Brad Miller, who drew himself a Congressional district as a state legislator a decade ago.

Now, the North Carolina Democrat is on the receiving end of the redistricting process, with the GOP-controlled state Legislature due to deliver retribution in the form of dismantling his district and making him its No. 1 target for defeat.

“Congressman Miller, people tend to believe, will be targeted. And it’s purely personal. He chaired the redistricting committee in the [state] Senate 10 years ago, and this is payback, if you will,” state Democratic Party Executive Director Jay Parmley said.

Paul Shumaker, a longtime GOP strategist in the state, said Miller was “absolutely” the most vulnerable among the House Democrats being targeted — namely Reps. Mike McIntyre, Larry Kissell and Heath Shuler.
Miller “doesn’t have any friends left in the Legislature,” Shumaker said.

State Republicans are now haggling behind closed doors over the first draft lines of the new Congressional map, to be released around July 1. The state’s Democratic governor does not have the legal authority to veto new lines.

Republicans see the Tar Heel State as a gold mine for gaining seats in the 2012 cycle.

“It’s a place where the lines 10 years ago were gerrymandered in such a way that unlocking the gerrymander that’s there will give us [the] opportunity to pick up more seats there than any other state in the country,” said a Republican with substantial knowledge of the state’s redistricting process. The GOP sees the opportunity to have eight Republican districts, four Democratic districts and one tossup district in the state.

But Democrats think that is a bridge too far.

“There are laws of unintended consequences that come out of these things all the time. And the greedier these guys get, the more difficult it is going to be to hold these districts. They can make them competitive, but they can’t make ’em solid,” longtime North Carolina Democratic consultant Thomas Mills said.

Democrats admit that the state will be an uphill battle for them, but they note the demographic trends — increases in Latino and black voting age population that outpaced increases in white voting age population — and the higher voter turnout generated by having the president on the ballot will be to their advantage.

North Carolina will be a key battleground in the presidential election, a cause for optimism for Democrats.

The four safe Democratic districts are expected to be: the two majority-minority districts currently represented by Reps. Mel Watt and G.K. Butterfield; a third majority non-white district; and a white, affluent district anchored by the Raleigh-Durham area.

But as the details of a new Congressional map get hammered out in legislative committees, Republicans say final decisions on the new lines have not yet been made.

“Everything is still being finalized and everything is still being checked. Until that happens, we won’t know exactly what the maps will look like,” said a North Carolina Republican with knowledge of the redistricting.

Republicans see a number of ways to get rid of Miller’s district, including dismantling the 13th district entirely and placing it in a different part of the state.

Republicans also say Miller might be drawn into fellow Democratic Rep. David Price’s Chapel Hill-Durham-based 4th district, which sets up the potential of a Member-versus-Member primary. Miller’s office declined to comment, but it did say he was running for re-election.

One potential GOP challenger for Miller is Nathan Tabor, a tea-party-aligned businessman and chairman of the Forsyth County Republican Party.

Republicans say Kissell might well be the easiest target in redistricting because of the 8th district’s geography. By cutting Fayetteville out of the district’s eastern side and parts of the Charlotte region on its western side, the seat becomes more Republican. One potential GOP opponent for Kissell, depending on how the final lines are drawn, is businessman Pat Molamphy.

Geography might end up helping McIntyre. Bordered on one side by the Atlantic Ocean and on another by South Carolina, the 7th district will be more difficult for the GOP in North Carolina to tinker with than those of his other vulnerable colleagues.

Still, Republicans see a path to swinging his district, which has been represented by a Democrat since the 1800s, into their column. Regardless of the new lines, GOP insiders tell Roll Call that ex-Marine Ilario Pantano, who lost to McIntyre in 2010, is likely to take another run at the Congressman.

Republicans also see the prospect of McIntyre and Kissell being drawn into the same district.

Republicans say they need to shore up freshman Rep. Renee Ellmers’ (R) 2nd district but that other GOP incumbents are safe.

Democrats hope they will still be able to target the 2nd, which was held by Democrat Bob Etheridge for 14 years. And they note that the more Republicans who are moved into the 2nd, the harder it will be to dilute Democrats in the districts of McIntyre, Kissell and Miller.

The GOP also hopes to weaken Shuler’s 11th district in the western part of the state by adding population from the neighboring 10th district, which is very Republican. If the new lines were to place Democratic Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, outside the 11th, Shuler could face an even steeper challenge than he did in 2010.

But no matter the district lines, to beat him, Republicans will need a good candidate. Republicans in the Tar Heel State and in Washington, D.C., were bullish on their recruitment prospects this cycle, citing the substantial opportunity to add seats in North Carolina.

“There is a perception in North Carolina that this is a time to run for Congress if you’re a Republican living in one of those four Democratic districts,” said the Republican with substantial knowledge of the state’s redistricting process.

But regardless of what happens, there will almost certainly be a lawsuit over Congressional redistricting.

Parmley, the executive director of the state Democratic Party, did not seem optimistic that the courts could be avoided. “You always hold out a hope that they draw fair maps, but there’s no indication we’ve been given that makes us think that they will be fair for us. So I think it’s reasonable to expect in the long run, that this will not be settled by the Legislature,” he said.

Under the 1965 Voting Rights Act, either the Department of Justice or a federal court must also approve the final lines.

JoshuaMiller@rollcall.com | @jm_dc

Labels: 2012 Redistricting NC, Brad Miller Vulnerable, GOP

2012 Redistricting in NC: Who gets hit, who gets bit, and who's left standing when the music stops.

Verne Strickland Blogmaster

March 03, 2011

Aaron Blake, one of the savvy political commentators for The Fix, published  in The Washington Post, is a savvy political commentator in my book. At least he would be, if I had a book.

Barring that, he did a tantalizing overview of how the complex dynamics of redistricting might play out in North Carolina. The Fix has previously examined how the fickle pen of political mappers might chart the future of twelve other states.

These are choice parts of Blake's analysis of probable scenarios in North Carolina – who gets hit, who gets bit, and who’s left standing when the music stops.

*********** 

North Carolina was one of just a few states where Republicans missed their chance at big gains in the 2010 midterms. Which makes it one of the only states in the country where Republicans could well make big gains in redistricting.

The Tarheel State stands out as the one state where Republicans will be expecting to gain multiple seats in the election following redistricting, and they could gain three or four if things pan out close to perfectly.

Republicans in November secured control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since the 1800s, and even though the state has a Democratic governor -- Bev Perdue -- she has no veto power over whatever map the Republicans draw.

The U.S. Census Bureau released detailed population data for the state Wednesday, but we've already got a good idea about what the GOP will try to do and what big gains are possible.

The reason for all that opportunity is two-fold.

One is that the current map was drawn by Democrats in 2001, which means many of the marginal districts were drawn to their liking. "Ten years ago, Democrats drew the most perfect map in the history of gerrymandering," remarked one Republican familiar with the state's lines.

Two is that Democrats stood tough in the state in 2010. While Democrats in swing and conservative-leaning districts across the country went down to defeat, North Carolina Democratic Reps. Heath Shuler, Mike McIntyre and Larry Kissell all won -- though Republicans did unseat Rep. Bob Etheridge.

The result is a map on which Democrats maintain a majority -- seven to six -- of congressional seats in the state. Of the 17 states where Republicans control redistricting, North Carolina is the only state where that is the case.

Because of those two factors -- the Democratic-drawn map and the continued Democratic majority -- there is plenty of room for improvement for the GOP. And the most likely Democrats to bear the brunt are McIntyre, Kissell and Rep. Brad Miller.

Miller is probably the most endangered. His north-central 13th district went 60 percent for President Obama in 2008, but a line tweak here or there, and all of a sudden it's a Republican-leaning district.

The district currently reaches awkwardly into Greensboro and Raleigh -- the two areas that allowed Miller to win reelection last year. Those areas could easily be handed off to nearby Democratic Reps. G.K. Butterfield in the 1st district, David Price in the 4th, and Mel Watt in the 12th, while Miller could pick up some GOP-leaning territory from Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx in the 5th district and GOP Rep. Howard Coble in the 6th -- both who are very safe. Miller could also add some of the GOP-leaning Raleigh suburbs from Rep. Renee Ellmers's (R) 2nd district, though Republicans will want to help Ellmers too.

Ellmers is the second easy call for the GOP. After beating Etheridge in November, her marginal 2nd district in the center of the state will need to be shored up. The most likely solution would be to, like with Miller's district, give some black and Democratic areas of Raleigh to Butterfield to the north, while picking up more of the Republican-leaning Fayetteville/Fort Bragg area to the south.

These two scenarios work because Butterfield's district will need to expand and pick up black voters. It is currently in danger of losing its majority-black status, and the Voting Rights Act requires that a majority-minority district be drawn where possible.

Butterfield's massive and awkward northeastern 1st district is one of two majority-black districts in the state, along with Watt's serpentine 12th district that runs from Greensboro to Charlotte. Those two districts and Price's Research Triangle-based seat are the only three safe Democratic districts in the state.

With those three safe and Miller likely in a heap of trouble, that leaves Shuler, McIntyre and Kissell as potential targets. And that's where things get a little uncertain.

Republicans have a number of options when it comes to targeting McIntyre and Kissell; with Shuler, it will be more difficult.

Shuler's 11th district is nestled in the western corner of the state, landlocked by Rep. Patrick McHenry's (R-N.C.) 10th district, and the only way to make it more Republican is to trade territory with McHenry. But Shuler's district is already pretty conservative -- going easily for the last two GOP presidential candidates -- so it's not clear that shifting even more GOP-aligned voters into it would make much of a difference.

If Republicans are going to beat Shuler, it will have to be in a district pretty close to what he has now. But moving some of Asheville into McHenry's district could only help, and McHenry, who has his eyes on moving up the leadership ladder, may be willing to play ball.

McIntyre and Kissell, meanwhile, border each other in the southern part of the state -- Kissell in the 8th district east of Charlotte and McIntyre in the Wilmington and Fayetteville-area 7th district along the southern tip of the state.

McIntyre's district went for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by five points in the 2008 presidential race, while Kissell's went for Obama by five.

Republicans could either try to make both incumbents more vulnerable or focus on completely dismantling one and allowing the other Democrat to survive.

Considering that, there are basically four scenarios here.

The first would be the creation of a third majority-black district. Provided that the Census data will support it, this district would take in the black and more Democratic parts of McIntyre's and Kissell's districts, making both incumbents pretty beatable. But it would also force big changes elsewhere on the map, because another district would have to be eliminated. (For example, do Republicans then try to dismantle Price's district in order to keep the state at three safe Democratic seats? It might not be easy.)

Under the second scenario, Republicans could weaken both McIntyre and Kissell without creating a new majority-black district. They could give McIntrye some territory from Rep. Walter Jones's safe Republican 3rd district to the east, while Kissell could pick up GOP-friendly territory from Coble's 6th to the north and Rep. Sue Myrick's (R-N.C.) 9th district to the west.

In that case, though, neither district would be a whole lot more winnable. And given that both men have proven solid campaigners -- McIntyre especially -- victory wouldn't be assured.

The better option may be to focus on one or the other.

A third option is for Republicans to pack McIntyre's district with Democrats from Kissell's district and Ellmers's 2nd district, allowing McIntyre to survive but giving the GOP a great shot at winning Kissell's seat and holding Ellmers's.

A more devious, fourth option would be to move McIntyre's home county of Robeson, along the western border of his district, into Kissell's district. That would effectively make Kissell's 8th district more Democratic, but it would also leave McIntyre with a tough decision -- run in a tough district where he doesn't live, or challenge Kissell in a primary. Republicans would have a good shot at winning McIntyre's current district either way.

Barring the unforeseen, Republicans should have a real good chance to take Miller's district and one of either Kissell's or McIntyre's. That would give them an eight-to-five advantage in the state's delegation.

A more ambitious map could land Republicans as many as three or even four seats and a nine-to-four or 10-to-three edge. But a lot of pieces will need to fall into place.

"Republicans would be disappointed in North Carolina if they didn't pick up two seats," said Dallas Woodhouse, the state director for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. "Three would probably be the maximum."

Either way, North Carolina would likely constitute the GOP's biggest gains in 2012. And much of the GOP's redistricting energy will be spent in this state.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/north-carolina-the-gops-golden.html