MANY DEMOCRATS DUCK OBAMA -- BUT McINTYRE, PRICE AND SHULER SHARE THE LOVE.

 Verne Strickland Blogmaster / December 16, 2011

NC Dems warming to Obama? (Politico)
Per the White House pool report released just a few moments ago, "North Carolina Congressmen Mike McIntyre, David Price and Heath Shuler accompanied the president on Air Force One to Ft. Bragg."

Most members of Congress dodged Obama during 
his last visit to North Carolina. | AP Photo

By DAVID CATANESE & ALEX ISENSTADT | 10/24/11 5:03 AM EDT

Despite President Barack Obama’s sagging poll ratings, top Democratic leaders from around the country insist they’d love for him to visit. From state party chairmen to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, the message remains remarkably consistent: No one views the president as a political liability.

Roughly a year out from the 2012 presidential election, that may be true. But already, as Obama’s most recent forays into battleground states indicate, there are growing signs that many Democratic politicians don’t want to get too close to him, either.

In trips to Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — all states that he carried in 2008 — members of Congress were notably missing from the president’s side. Though none came out and said they were deliberately avoiding him, they didn’t have to: Dodging a presidential candidate who’s riding low in the polls is a time-honored political practice.

The past three elections — the Sept. 13 House special elections in New York and Nevada and the Oct. 4 West Virginia gubernatorial special election — haven’t done much to inspire confidence about Obama’s ability to help the entire ticket: The president was unquestionably an anchor on the Democratic nominees in each race.

For Obama, who has led a charmed political life since bursting onto the national stage in 2004 — he was in high demand on the campaign trail even before he won his Senate seat that year — it’s a harbinger of a humbling election year to come.

In North Carolina, only Sen. Kay Hagan, who isn’t up for reelection until 2014, and veteran Rep. Mel Watt, who represents a majority black district, appeared with the president. The state’s six other Democratic House members took a pass, offering a variety of excuses.

“[Obama] may end up being Walter Mondale of 1984,” said Raleigh-based Democratic strategist Brad Crone, recalling that the only elected official who risked being seen with the party’s nominee that year was the longtime agriculture commissioner.

When Obama visited Pittsburgh, Pa., two weeks ago, the story was much the same — no members of Congress to be found. Though two of southwestern Pennsylvania’s three Democratic congressmen greeted the president on the airport tarmac, neither of them attended any of the public events Obama held, choosing instead to return to Washington.

“Southwest Pennsylvania has become over time a difficult place for Democrats because of the perception they are left of center,” said T.J. Rooney, a former Pennsylvania Democratic Party chairman and state legislator.

Some Democrats believe that attempts to keep a distance from the president can only backfire. Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell called it “political idiocy” for Democrats to purposefully avoid a president from their own party.

Four NC Democrats named "Most Vulnerable" (no -- not "Most Valuable") by 'The Hill'

Verne Strickland Blogmaster / August 24, 2011

The result of record deficits haunts incumbent Democrats

RALEIGH, NC – Four members of the North Carolina Democratic Congressional Delegation have been named “most vulnerable” by The Hill, a non-partisan Washington, D.C. publication.

Rep. Larry Kissell took home the top prize of “Most Vulnerable Democrat”, followed by “#4 Most Vulnerable Democrat” Rep. Heath Shuler, and “Honorable Mentions” Rep. David Price and Rep. Mike McIntyre.

These four were members of the 111^th Democrat-controlled Congress that helped pile a whopping $4 Trillion on to our national debt in just 2.5 years under the leadership of President Obama.

It is also notable that the 111^th congress failed to pass a congressional budget to determine government spending, one of the core responsibilities that they are supposed to perform.

NCGOP Chairman Robin Hayes had this to say: “It is interesting to note that there is 1 “vulnerable Democrat” for every $1 Trillion added to the debt under President Obama.

"The fiscal irresponsibility of these four and their Democratic colleagues led to a jump in unemployment to unacceptable levels both nationally (9.1%) and in our state (10.1%).

"The people of North Carolina want responsibility and leadership restored in Washington, D.C., and that happens by replacing these members of Congress next November.”

URL: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/redistricting/177611-five-most-vulnerable-democrats-from-congressional-redistricting

Paid for by the North Carolina Republican Party
www.NCGOP.org

New NC Redistricting maps promise to add GOP seats in U.S. Congress. Squabbles erupt.

Verne Strickland Blogmaster June 3, 2011

WILLIAM 'BUS' BARBER OF NC NAACP CRIES 'FOUL'. STATE DEMOCRAT LEADER SAYS GOP 'OVERREACHED'.

by BETH SHAYNE / NewsChannel 36

Bio | Email | Follow: @bethshayne

WCNC.com

Posted on July 2, 2011 at 9:08 AM

Updated yesterday at 11:59 AM 

As many as four Democratic members of Congress from North Carolina could find it much harder to win re-election under redistricted boundaries proposed Friday by Republican state lawmakers.

The draft of a redistricted map would increase the percentages of GOP voters in the 8th district, represented by Larry Kissell, the 13th District of U.S. Rep. Brad Miller, the 11th Congressional District represented by U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, and U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre's 7th district.

Of North Carolina's 13 representatives, 7 are Democrats. Six are Republicans. The GOP gained only one seat in the wave of Republican wins in 2010. With that in mind, Republicans in charge of the effort presented it as an effort to make North Carolina more competitive.

"While we have not been ignorant of the partisan impacts of the districts we have created, we have focused on ensuring that the districts will be more competitive than the districts created by the 2001 Legislature," said a statement from Rep. David Lewis, R-Harnett, and state Sen. Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, chairmen of the Legislature's redistricting committees.

Kissell, whose district will take in portions of GOP-friendly Randolph, Rowan and Davidson county, called it gerrymandering.

"Mine is not a Democratic or Republican agenda, it is the American agenda, an agenda that people of every political stripe can and do support. I plan to seek re-election, return to Congress and continue the fight on behalf of my constituents.

Should this proposed map pass muster with the courts and become the final map, I will welcome Rowan, Davidson, Randolph and Robeson counties into the 8th District and fight for them as I have fought for the current 8th District," Rep. Kissell said in a statement.

Jay Parmley, executive director of the North Carolina Democratic Party, said Republicans overreached by creating a map that tries to favor their candidates in a state that's been politically competitive for the past decade. Republicans had a majority of the state's delegation just five years ago. "I would call it Republican greed," he said.

From his Matthews home Friday, Rucho told NewsChannel 36 the map is both fair and legal.

The process of redistricting is triggered each year by new population estimates totalled by the 10-year federal census. However, the process is generally considered political, as it is controlled by the party in power in each state. In 2001, during the last redistricting, North Carolina's legislature was held by Democrats.

Public hearings on the maps will be held next week, and new maps with districts for NC House and Senate elections will be released July 11. The Republicans want to approve congressional and legislative districts by the end of July. They have to be approved by the U.S. Justice Department or a federal court to comply with the 1965 Voting Rights Act, to ensure that they are free of discrimination against minorities.

The NC NAACP has already charged that they do not pass the discrimination test. In a statement Friday night, NAACP president Rev. William Barber called the map "a frontal attack on civil and voting rights," writing, ""Another major concern is that five counties covered by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act are being removed from the 1st Congressional District. In the heavily African-American area of Eastern North Carolina, this district was developed intentionally to overcome years of disenfranchisement and voter exclusion."

The maps were changed to reflect an additional 1.5 million residents in North Carolina since the 2000 Census. But the increase wasn't enough for the state to gain another U.S. House seat, as it did in the two previous redistricting cycles. The maps must be redrawn so a near-equal number are in each district -- 733,499.

The Associated Press contributed.
Online Proposed North Carolina congressional district map:http://bit.ly/kHdm3k
http://www.topix.com/us-house/mike-mcintyre/2011/07/new-nc-maps-would-likely-add-gop-seats-in-congress

2012 Redistricting in NC: Who gets hit, who gets bit, and who's left standing when the music stops.

Verne Strickland Blogmaster

March 03, 2011

Aaron Blake, one of the savvy political commentators for The Fix, published  in The Washington Post, is a savvy political commentator in my book. At least he would be, if I had a book.

Barring that, he did a tantalizing overview of how the complex dynamics of redistricting might play out in North Carolina. The Fix has previously examined how the fickle pen of political mappers might chart the future of twelve other states.

These are choice parts of Blake's analysis of probable scenarios in North Carolina – who gets hit, who gets bit, and who’s left standing when the music stops.

*********** 

North Carolina was one of just a few states where Republicans missed their chance at big gains in the 2010 midterms. Which makes it one of the only states in the country where Republicans could well make big gains in redistricting.

The Tarheel State stands out as the one state where Republicans will be expecting to gain multiple seats in the election following redistricting, and they could gain three or four if things pan out close to perfectly.

Republicans in November secured control of both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since the 1800s, and even though the state has a Democratic governor -- Bev Perdue -- she has no veto power over whatever map the Republicans draw.

The U.S. Census Bureau released detailed population data for the state Wednesday, but we've already got a good idea about what the GOP will try to do and what big gains are possible.

The reason for all that opportunity is two-fold.

One is that the current map was drawn by Democrats in 2001, which means many of the marginal districts were drawn to their liking. "Ten years ago, Democrats drew the most perfect map in the history of gerrymandering," remarked one Republican familiar with the state's lines.

Two is that Democrats stood tough in the state in 2010. While Democrats in swing and conservative-leaning districts across the country went down to defeat, North Carolina Democratic Reps. Heath Shuler, Mike McIntyre and Larry Kissell all won -- though Republicans did unseat Rep. Bob Etheridge.

The result is a map on which Democrats maintain a majority -- seven to six -- of congressional seats in the state. Of the 17 states where Republicans control redistricting, North Carolina is the only state where that is the case.

Because of those two factors -- the Democratic-drawn map and the continued Democratic majority -- there is plenty of room for improvement for the GOP. And the most likely Democrats to bear the brunt are McIntyre, Kissell and Rep. Brad Miller.

Miller is probably the most endangered. His north-central 13th district went 60 percent for President Obama in 2008, but a line tweak here or there, and all of a sudden it's a Republican-leaning district.

The district currently reaches awkwardly into Greensboro and Raleigh -- the two areas that allowed Miller to win reelection last year. Those areas could easily be handed off to nearby Democratic Reps. G.K. Butterfield in the 1st district, David Price in the 4th, and Mel Watt in the 12th, while Miller could pick up some GOP-leaning territory from Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx in the 5th district and GOP Rep. Howard Coble in the 6th -- both who are very safe. Miller could also add some of the GOP-leaning Raleigh suburbs from Rep. Renee Ellmers's (R) 2nd district, though Republicans will want to help Ellmers too.

Ellmers is the second easy call for the GOP. After beating Etheridge in November, her marginal 2nd district in the center of the state will need to be shored up. The most likely solution would be to, like with Miller's district, give some black and Democratic areas of Raleigh to Butterfield to the north, while picking up more of the Republican-leaning Fayetteville/Fort Bragg area to the south.

These two scenarios work because Butterfield's district will need to expand and pick up black voters. It is currently in danger of losing its majority-black status, and the Voting Rights Act requires that a majority-minority district be drawn where possible.

Butterfield's massive and awkward northeastern 1st district is one of two majority-black districts in the state, along with Watt's serpentine 12th district that runs from Greensboro to Charlotte. Those two districts and Price's Research Triangle-based seat are the only three safe Democratic districts in the state.

With those three safe and Miller likely in a heap of trouble, that leaves Shuler, McIntyre and Kissell as potential targets. And that's where things get a little uncertain.

Republicans have a number of options when it comes to targeting McIntyre and Kissell; with Shuler, it will be more difficult.

Shuler's 11th district is nestled in the western corner of the state, landlocked by Rep. Patrick McHenry's (R-N.C.) 10th district, and the only way to make it more Republican is to trade territory with McHenry. But Shuler's district is already pretty conservative -- going easily for the last two GOP presidential candidates -- so it's not clear that shifting even more GOP-aligned voters into it would make much of a difference.

If Republicans are going to beat Shuler, it will have to be in a district pretty close to what he has now. But moving some of Asheville into McHenry's district could only help, and McHenry, who has his eyes on moving up the leadership ladder, may be willing to play ball.

McIntyre and Kissell, meanwhile, border each other in the southern part of the state -- Kissell in the 8th district east of Charlotte and McIntyre in the Wilmington and Fayetteville-area 7th district along the southern tip of the state.

McIntyre's district went for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by five points in the 2008 presidential race, while Kissell's went for Obama by five.

Republicans could either try to make both incumbents more vulnerable or focus on completely dismantling one and allowing the other Democrat to survive.

Considering that, there are basically four scenarios here.

The first would be the creation of a third majority-black district. Provided that the Census data will support it, this district would take in the black and more Democratic parts of McIntyre's and Kissell's districts, making both incumbents pretty beatable. But it would also force big changes elsewhere on the map, because another district would have to be eliminated. (For example, do Republicans then try to dismantle Price's district in order to keep the state at three safe Democratic seats? It might not be easy.)

Under the second scenario, Republicans could weaken both McIntyre and Kissell without creating a new majority-black district. They could give McIntrye some territory from Rep. Walter Jones's safe Republican 3rd district to the east, while Kissell could pick up GOP-friendly territory from Coble's 6th to the north and Rep. Sue Myrick's (R-N.C.) 9th district to the west.

In that case, though, neither district would be a whole lot more winnable. And given that both men have proven solid campaigners -- McIntyre especially -- victory wouldn't be assured.

The better option may be to focus on one or the other.

A third option is for Republicans to pack McIntyre's district with Democrats from Kissell's district and Ellmers's 2nd district, allowing McIntyre to survive but giving the GOP a great shot at winning Kissell's seat and holding Ellmers's.

A more devious, fourth option would be to move McIntyre's home county of Robeson, along the western border of his district, into Kissell's district. That would effectively make Kissell's 8th district more Democratic, but it would also leave McIntyre with a tough decision -- run in a tough district where he doesn't live, or challenge Kissell in a primary. Republicans would have a good shot at winning McIntyre's current district either way.

Barring the unforeseen, Republicans should have a real good chance to take Miller's district and one of either Kissell's or McIntyre's. That would give them an eight-to-five advantage in the state's delegation.

A more ambitious map could land Republicans as many as three or even four seats and a nine-to-four or 10-to-three edge. But a lot of pieces will need to fall into place.

"Republicans would be disappointed in North Carolina if they didn't pick up two seats," said Dallas Woodhouse, the state director for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. "Three would probably be the maximum."

Either way, North Carolina would likely constitute the GOP's biggest gains in 2012. And much of the GOP's redistricting energy will be spent in this state.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/north-carolina-the-gops-golden.html