'It's a dream map for Republicans -- a 9-4 map, and it's modeled after constitutional guidelines.'
By Verne Strickland
It looks like people who voted for Pantano will get Pantano, and people who voted for McIntyre will get McIntyre
McIntyre would be foolish to run in the new Thirteenth -- he'd be creamed -- he would have no base of support there. With only a very few exceptions all of McIntyre's strong areas like Robeson, Columbus, Bladen, and Downtown Wilmington, would remain in the Seventh.And even there, McIntyre faces a challenge from a strong minority candidate and there is the potential that Kissell could choose to run in the Seventh instead of the Eighth.The parts of Pender New Hanover and Brunswick that would be in the new Thirteenth voted for Pantano by an overwhelming margin
Pantano beat McIntyre head to head by a 62 to 38 margin in the portion of Sampson County that was in the Seventh and that will be in the new Thirteenth.
Onslow, of course, is the home of Camp Lejeune, where Pantano was stationed as an 18-year-old Marine, when he fought in the First Gulf War. And then he was stationed there in the Second Gulf War when he fought in Iraq. Ilario is revered and loved by local veterans’ organizations and the community. From diners to gun shows, everyone has come to know Pantano in a personal way. His story was covered extensively in the Jacksonville Daily News and their honest reportage means that the folks in Jacksonville know that Pantano is the real thing.
In fact Pantano's Brand is so strong in the Onslow county area that he was asked to cut a commercial for Republican Walter Jones who faced a Primary fight in 2006. The ad, which can be viewed here speaks to the fact that Congressman Jones is a fierce defender of the "boots on the ground" and since Pantano was one of those boots he support Walter Jones.
Pantano, because of his military ties, is very strong in Fayetteville and Cumberland...Pantano and McIntyre split the vote in the portion of Cumberland that was in the Seventh. The portion of Cumberland that is in the Thirteenth will be more Republican and more favorable to Pantano than the area of the county that was in the Seventh in 2010.
The portions of Johnston and Wayne County that will be in the new Thirteenth should be favorable to Pantano as well, as they are very similar to the portion of Sampson that was in the old Seventh and will be in the new Thirteenth. They are conservative, mostly rural, major agricultural areas with a heavy emphasis on hog farming. And with Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, Wayne County also has a strong military presence.
It would be very difficult for someone to defeat Pantano in a primary in the new Thirteenth, as he is very strong in the bulk of the areas that would be in the new district. He would have a tremendous advantage in positive name ID with Republican primary voters in the new district, both because of the 2010 race and because of his sterling reputation in Onslow County.
The bottom line is more than a majority of likely voters in a 2012 Republican primary in the new 13th will have already voted for Pantano twice (in the 2010 primary and general election), and Pantano has a strong appeal to rock-ribbed Republicans and Tea Party members who will be most of the people voting in a 2012 Republican primary.
This is a 'dream map' -- a 9-4 map -- and its modeled after Constitutional guidelines.It does what we’ve said all along in North Carolina – if you follow federal law and don’t illegally gerrymander, you’ll have nine Republican congressmen.
The following information on redistricting is provided by the official North Carolina General Assembly (NCGA) Website:
THE BRAD MILLER STORY: Our source's comments on the esteemed gentleman from North Carolina:
I’ve been told that was very intentional, because he has rubbed people the wrong way. He was actually quoted, I believe, when he told the Raleigh N&O that he was going to draw a congressional district for himself. And he went out and did it. Some have reportedly since said that they wouldn’t be hurt at all if Brad Miller was just made to go away. And they went out and did it.
Ralph Bradley "Brad" Miller is a Democratic member of the U.S. House of Representatives representing North Carolina's 13th District (map) since 2002.
Here is a link to an article by Pat Gannon of the Star News on NC redistricting: