Verne Strickland Blogmaster / September 21, 2012
ANDREW MALCOLM / Investors Business Daily
September 19, 2012
Republican doom and gloom drumbeat was dramatically muted in the media this week.
A new Gallup Poll out this morning finds President Obama's convention bounce fading and the 2012 presidential race reverting to its previous tight margin. What a bummer for the preferred media narrative of recent days!
The poll, of 1,096 registered voters in 12 key swing states, finds Obama and Mitt Romney virtually tied at 48% for the Democrat and 46% for Romney with less than seven weeks to go.
Gallup's Daily Tracking of registered voters nationally finds the margin even closer with Obama at 47% and Romney at 46%.
The crucial swing states polled were: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Obama handily won all 12 states over John McCain in 2008, but at this point this time the race is much closer.
Gallup found that 22% of those swing state voters said they were either undecided now or there's a slight chance they'll change their mind by Nov. 6. Ominously for Obama, more of that 22% susceptible to change currently support the incumbent.
Three-quarters of the swing state voters said the recent party conventions had not affected their choice.
And another three-quarters asserted the upcoming three presidential debates in October will have little influence on their vote.
Again ominously for Obama, the debates look to loom as more important for him than for Romney, the reverse of the usual incumbent-challenger template.
More of those who say the debates could influence their choice currently favor Obama (54%) than favor Romney (40%), meaning the Democrat has more to lose from a poor performance.
Sen. John Kerry is helping Obama. You may remember the wealthy Massachusetts windsurfer as the Democrat who won the 2004 election before he lost it, as Ohio slipped inevitably away. Kerry is playing the Romney role in debate prep, meaning a poor Obama showing is more likely. Although the salute will be sharp.