New public polls this weekend show Republicans well positioned in
three of the key states that could decide control of the Senate.
CNN/ORC polls released Sunday have the GOP candidate narrowly ahead in a Louisiana runoff and within the margin of error in North Carolina
(Also on POLITICO: Red-seat Dems fight for survival)
If no one clears 50 percent in November, the top two finishers square off in a Dec. 6 runoff. In a head-to-head matchup, Cassidy wins by 3 points, 50 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters. Landrieu, though, leads by 6 points, 51-45, among the broader sample of registered voters. The divergent numbers highlight the importance of Democratic efforts to boost black turnout, especially for a December runoff.
North Carolina Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan leads by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters, with Libertarian Sean Haugh getting 7 percent.
That’s within the margin of error and comes even though Hagan is seen more negatively than her challenger. While 46 percent hold a positive view of Hagan, 47 percent hold a negative view. Tillis is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent.
(See more from POLITICO's Polling Center)
Meanwhile, a Des Moines Register poll published in Sunday’s newspaper has Republican Joni Ernst leading by 6 points in the Iowa Senate race, 44 percent to 38 percent.
Democrats scoffed at the Register poll and pushed back by sharing exclusively with POLITICO an internal poll conducted this week that shows a tied race, 42 percent to 42 percent. The Register poll, conducted by Ann Selzer, is considered the gold standard in the Hawkeye State, and it has a good record of anticipating the margin in presidential races.
In the two states surveyed by CNN, President Barack Obama is a drag on the respective Democratic incumbent.
Obama’s approval rating in Louisiana is 37 percent, with 61 percent disapproving, including a remarkable racial disparity. Among whites, Obama’s approval rating is just 17 percent. Among non-whites, it is 76 percent.
(Also on POLITICO: Republicans stop talking tax cuts)
In North Carolina, Obama’s approval is 38 percent, with 58 percent disapproving (26 percent among whites and 75 percent among nonwhites).
Results released by the Des Moines Register thus far did not include the president’s approval rating.
Braley and Ernst are both treading water. He’s viewed favorably and unfavorably by an equal 42 percent, with 16 percent undecided. She’s viewed favorably by 45 percent, unfavorably by 44 percent and 11 percent are undecided.
Ernst has been hammered on television, where Republicans have been outspent. While she and Braley have similar standing at the topline, 29 percent view Ernst “very” unfavorably compared to 22 percent who feel that way about Braley.
(Also on POLITICO: Crunch time for Jeb Bush)
Ernst is up 43 points among rural voters; Braley is up 7 points among city dwellers. Braley and Ernst are tied in the House district he’s represented since 2006.
The Republican has her work cut out for her on appealing to seniors in the home stretch, some of whom are clearly being scared off by ads that accuse her of planning to privatize Social Security. Her weakest performance among any age groups is those 65 and over, where she was up just 1 point.
There are signs of fluidity: 12 percent are undecided, and just under a third of each candidate’s supporters said they still could be persuaded to vote for another candidate.
Ernst leads by 25 points among men (55-30), while Braley leads by 13 points among women (46-33).
The CNN polls show a slimmer gender gap.
Tillis leads among men by 4 points (46-42), while Hagan leads among women by 9 points (49-40). Tillis is up among independents by 1 (49-40) and among whites by 18 points (53-35).
In the head-to-head, Cassidy actually leads among men and slightly among women. His victory is powered by a 71-26 point lead among whites. Even among white women, Landrieu is stuck below 30 percent.
Hagan has led in every single poll since August. North Carolina has slipped down the list of likeliest GOP pick-ups, with Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska all feeling more winnable for GOP strategists.
But Tillis remains in the hunt in the Tar Heel State, especially if he can woo a chunk of those currently backing the Libertarian. To reach those voters, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has cut an ad on his behalf and will travel to the state this week to campaign with him.
The Iowa Poll of 546 likely voters (culled from a larger sample of 800) was conducted Sept. 21-24 by Selzer & Co. and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent for likely voters.
The Louisiana poll of 866 registered voters and 610 likely voters was conducted Sept. 22-25 by ORC International and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
The North Carolina poll of 860 registered voters and 595 likely voters was conducted Sept. 22-25 by ORC International and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. Thirty percent of the full sample for each CNN poll was reached by cell phone.
In the Louisiana primary, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu
leads Republican Bill Cassidy, 43 percent to 40 percent among likely
voters, with Republican Rob Maness getting 9 percent. Sarah Palin
campaigned with Maness Saturday.
If no one clears 50 percent in November, the top two finishers square off in a Dec. 6 runoff. In a head-to-head matchup, Cassidy wins by 3 points, 50 percent to 47 percent, among likely voters. Landrieu, though, leads by 6 points, 51-45, among the broader sample of registered voters. The divergent numbers highlight the importance of Democratic efforts to boost black turnout, especially for a December runoff.
North Carolina Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan leads by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters, with Libertarian Sean Haugh getting 7 percent.
That’s within the margin of error and comes even though Hagan is seen more negatively than her challenger. While 46 percent hold a positive view of Hagan, 47 percent hold a negative view. Tillis is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent.
(See more from POLITICO's Polling Center)
Meanwhile, a Des Moines Register poll published in Sunday’s newspaper has Republican Joni Ernst leading by 6 points in the Iowa Senate race, 44 percent to 38 percent.
Democrats scoffed at the Register poll and pushed back by sharing exclusively with POLITICO an internal poll conducted this week that shows a tied race, 42 percent to 42 percent. The Register poll, conducted by Ann Selzer, is considered the gold standard in the Hawkeye State, and it has a good record of anticipating the margin in presidential races.
In the two states surveyed by CNN, President Barack Obama is a drag on the respective Democratic incumbent.
Obama’s approval rating in Louisiana is 37 percent, with 61 percent disapproving, including a remarkable racial disparity. Among whites, Obama’s approval rating is just 17 percent. Among non-whites, it is 76 percent.
(Also on POLITICO: Republicans stop talking tax cuts)
In North Carolina, Obama’s approval is 38 percent, with 58 percent disapproving (26 percent among whites and 75 percent among nonwhites).
Results released by the Des Moines Register thus far did not include the president’s approval rating.
Braley and Ernst are both treading water. He’s viewed favorably and unfavorably by an equal 42 percent, with 16 percent undecided. She’s viewed favorably by 45 percent, unfavorably by 44 percent and 11 percent are undecided.
Ernst has been hammered on television, where Republicans have been outspent. While she and Braley have similar standing at the topline, 29 percent view Ernst “very” unfavorably compared to 22 percent who feel that way about Braley.
(Also on POLITICO: Crunch time for Jeb Bush)
Ernst is up 43 points among rural voters; Braley is up 7 points among city dwellers. Braley and Ernst are tied in the House district he’s represented since 2006.
The Republican has her work cut out for her on appealing to seniors in the home stretch, some of whom are clearly being scared off by ads that accuse her of planning to privatize Social Security. Her weakest performance among any age groups is those 65 and over, where she was up just 1 point.
There are signs of fluidity: 12 percent are undecided, and just under a third of each candidate’s supporters said they still could be persuaded to vote for another candidate.
Ernst leads by 25 points among men (55-30), while Braley leads by 13 points among women (46-33).
The CNN polls show a slimmer gender gap.
Tillis leads among men by 4 points (46-42), while Hagan leads among women by 9 points (49-40). Tillis is up among independents by 1 (49-40) and among whites by 18 points (53-35).
In the head-to-head, Cassidy actually leads among men and slightly among women. His victory is powered by a 71-26 point lead among whites. Even among white women, Landrieu is stuck below 30 percent.
Hagan has led in every single poll since August. North Carolina has slipped down the list of likeliest GOP pick-ups, with Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska all feeling more winnable for GOP strategists.
But Tillis remains in the hunt in the Tar Heel State, especially if he can woo a chunk of those currently backing the Libertarian. To reach those voters, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has cut an ad on his behalf and will travel to the state this week to campaign with him.
The Iowa Poll of 546 likely voters (culled from a larger sample of 800) was conducted Sept. 21-24 by Selzer & Co. and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent for likely voters.
The Louisiana poll of 866 registered voters and 610 likely voters was conducted Sept. 22-25 by ORC International and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
The North Carolina poll of 860 registered voters and 595 likely voters was conducted Sept. 22-25 by ORC International and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. Thirty percent of the full sample for each CNN poll was reached by cell phone.
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